Astec Industries, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $50M normalized FCF base (blend of FY2025 FCF of $20.7M and H1 2026 run-rate of $37.3M reflecting margin recovery); FCF growth 12%/12%/10%/10%/9% years 1-5 then 8%/7%/6%/5%/4% years 6-10; 9% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; net debt $270M; 23.2M diluted shares.

Reasoning: DCF chosen because Astec is a profitable, asset-based industrial manufacturer with a clear self-help margin story; growth inputs anchor to management's 2030 plan (adjusted EBITDA margin expanding from ~10% to 14-17%, ROIC to 13-15%) rather than the thin 2-analyst consensus, and a 9% discount rate reflects small-cap/cyclical construction-equipment risk plus moderate leverage.