Ascendis Pharma A/S

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year revenue-and-margin-ramp DCF (EUR, converted at 1.15 USD/EUR): revenue base EUR1.61B (year 1, off FY2026E run-rate of ~EUR1.15B annualized from H1 2026 EUR585.9M); revenue growth 40%/30%/25%/20%/15% years 1-5 then 12%/10%/8%/6%/5% years 6-10; FCF margin ramping from 10% to 30% as YORVIPATH/SKYTROFA/YUVIWEL scale on ~92% gross margin and operating leverage; 9% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; net debt ~$104M; 68.3M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Used a revenue-driven margin-ramp DCF rather than a static FCF base because Ascendis just inflected to positive operating cash flow (EUR274M H1 2026) after years of investment, so near-term FCF is not yet representative of steady-state economics; growth rates are grounded in YORVIPATH's 126% YoY H1 growth and the newly launched YUVIWEL, tempered for deceleration as products mature and for the new BioMarin royalty obligation on YUVIWEL sales.