ASML Holding N.V.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $13.80B normalized FCF base (EUR12.0B x 1.15 USD/EUR), built off FY2025 FCF of EUR11.09B and TTM EUR10.04B, stepped up for FY2026 guided revenue of EUR43-45B; FCF growth 22%/18%/14%/11%/9% years 1-5 then 8%/7%/6%/5%/4% years 6-10; 8.75% discount rate; 3.25% terminal growth; net cash $7.36B (EUR6.4B); 384M diluted shares.

Reasoning: DCF chosen because ASML has highly predictable, monopoly-like recurring EUV/DUV lithography revenue with strong FCF conversion; used company's own FY2026 guidance and reaffirmed 2030 investor-day scenario (EUR40-60B revenue) to set the growth path, and a below-market discount rate reflecting its wide moat and net cash balance sheet, offset by tempering the terminal multiple given China export-control and cyclicality risk.