Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: normalized FCF base of $50M (reflecting Arrowhead's commercial inflection as approved drug REDEMPLO/plozasiran scales and licensing milestones offset R&D spend); 40% growth years 1-5 and 15% years 6-10, reflecting Phase 3 readouts (SHASTA-3/4 met primary endpoints), a planned sNDA filing, and the YOSEMITE HoFH trial; 11% discount rate for biotech/clinical risk; 3% terminal growth; approximately $220M of net cash added (roughly $1.6B cash and investments less $1.38B debt); 141.25M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Arrowhead is transitioning from a clinical-stage to a commercial biopharma with a real approved product and near-term regulatory catalysts, so a growth DCF anchored to a modest current cash-flow base with high but moderating growth captures its inflection better than either a pure pipeline-NPV model or a static earnings multiple.