Arqit Quantum Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV / option value: $26.69M net cash plus a ~15%-probability-weighted NPV of Arqit capturing meaningful share of the emerging post-quantum-cryptography market (estimated ~$800M fully-derisked NPV if successful, risk-weighted to ~$120M); total ~$146.69M; 16.58M shares.

Reasoning: Arqit is a pre-commercial-scale quantum-safe encryption technology company with negligible current revenue, so conventional FCF DCF is not meaningful; a heavily probability-weighted option-value approach on the large but uncertain post-quantum-cryptography market opportunity is used, and it comes in well below the current market price, reflecting a more conservative view of execution/market-capture probability than the market currently assigns.