Aris Mining Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year mining FCF DCF with production ramp: $1,269M TTM revenue growing 15% (yr1) as Marmato underground ramps, 8% (yr2-3), 3% (yr4-5), flat thereafter; FCF margin improving from 12% (current run-rate) to a steady 18% by year 4 as higher-grade underground production lowers unit costs; 11% discount rate (Colombia country/commodity risk); 5x terminal FCF multiple reflecting finite mine life; -$80.28M net debt; 206.40M shares.

Reasoning: Aris Mining is a growth gold producer (Segovia, Marmato) ramping toward higher-margin underground production, so a production-ramp DCF with a finite-life terminal multiple (rather than a perpetuity, given depleting ore reserves) is the standard approach for a mining asset, consistent with the method used for other gold producers in this batch.