Alto Neuroscience, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV): lead depression franchise (ALTO-300/ALTO-207) valued at 35% probability of success x $1.0B assumed peak sales x 2.5x peak-sales-to-NPV multiple, discounted 4 years at 12% ($556.1M); plus ~$100M for secondary pipeline (ALTO-100, ALTO-101); plus $220.4M net cash; 39.24M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Alto Neuroscience is a clinical-stage neuropsychiatry biotech with no product revenue; value derives from risk-adjusted pipeline economics rather than a cash-flow DCF, using phase-success probabilities elevated above typical Phase 2 averages to reflect the company's already-positive biomarker-guided data (reflected in the stock's roughly 12x rally) and stated cash runway through 2029.