Aemetis, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year path-to-profitability DCF built on revenue growing from $230M (TTM) at 25%/20%/15%/12%/10% in years 1-5 then 5%/yr thereafter, with unlevered FCF margin improving from -8% (yr1) to breakeven (yr2) to +12% by years 5-10; 11% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; $551M net debt (vs. $973K cash and $552M total debt); 72.17M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Aemetis is pre-profitability with TTM FCF of -$39.3M and very high leverage (net debt of $551M against a market cap of only $156M), so a standard mature-company DCF would be meaningless; a scenario DCF tied to management's own guidance produces an equity value only slightly above zero, reflecting genuine going-concern/refinancing risk that the market is already pricing in via its EV/Sales multiple of roughly 3x.