Altimmune, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Cash plus risk-adjusted pipeline NPV (DCF inappropriate - pre-revenue): ~$500M estimated current net cash (Q2'26 reported $519M cash/investments less an estimated Q3 burn); rNPV by program - MASH pemvidutide (Phase 3 PERFORMA ongoing, BTD/Fast Track): 25% probability of success x $1.5B estimated peak sales x 2.5x rough NPV-to-peak-sales multiplier, discounted 5 years at 13% is approximately $510M; AUD (Phase 2 positive topline): 15% POS x $0.5B peak x 2.5x, discounted 6 years is approximately $90M; ALD (Phase 2 enrolling): 10% POS x $0.5B peak x 2.5x, discounted 7 years is approximately $55M. Total approximately $1.15B divided by 194.5M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Altimmune has no revenue and is burning cash (~$45M net loss in H1'26), so a DCF cannot be grounded; value instead rests on hard net cash plus a deliberately conservative, probability-weighted valuation of its Phase 3 MASH and Phase 2 AUD/ALD pemvidutide programs, explicitly discounting for high clinical/regulatory failure risk and a multi-year path to any approval (MASH data not until 2029).