ALPHA STAR ACQUISITION CORPORATION

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Expected-value warrant pricing: each warrant converts into 1/2 of one PubCo ordinary share at an $11.50 exercise price upon completion of the long-pending OU XDATA reincorporation merger. Trust redemption value has concentrated to $36.78/share (3/31/2026 10-Q) purely due to heavy prior shareholder redemptions leaving a tiny remaining share count ($829,887 total trust) -- not an indicator of expected post-merger PubCo trading price, which will reset toward a typical de-SPAC range near $10-12/share once new PubCo shares are issued at closing. At that assumed post-merger price the 1/2-share warrant is roughly at-the-money-to-out-of-the-money; combined with a low ~20% assumed probability of completing the merger by the extended 12/15/2026 deadline (the deal has been pending and repeatedly extended since the original December 2021 IPO, with an explicit going-concern warning disclosed), expected value is very low.

Reasoning: Given years of failed completion attempts and a disclosed going-concern doubt, a heavily probability-discounted expected-value approach is more defensible than a standard option-pricing model that would overstate value by using the distorted, redemption-concentrated trust price as the option spot.