Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: base FCF $180M (vs TTM FCF of $187.7M through Jun-2026 and FY2025 FCF of $137.1M), Years 1-5 FCF growth 9%/yr (in line with TTM revenue growth of 8.7% and a recently raised FY2026 guidance range), Years 6-10 growth fades to 5%/yr, discount rate 10.5%, terminal growth 2.5%, less net debt of $86.2M (cash + short-term investments of $481.3M vs total debt of $567.5M, largely low/zero-coupon convertible notes); divided by 49.09M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Alarm.com is a profitable, high-margin SaaS platform (TTM FCF margin ~17.7% of revenue) with steady growth in its core smart-home/security subscription base plus newer commercial and international offerings, so a standard multi-stage FCF DCF is the natural fit; growth is modeled as fading from current momentum toward a more moderate long-run rate as the core US residential market matures.