Allogene Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted (probability-of-success-weighted) NPV of pipeline: lead program cema-cel (allogeneic CAR-T) for 1L high-risk/MRD+ large B-cell lymphoma consolidation (pivotal Phase 2 ALPHA3 trial; RMAT + Fast Track designations; enrollment expected complete ~2027) -- assumed peak sales $1.5B (US+ROW) reached ~2034, 25% net margin, 35% probability of approval/launch, revenue ramps 2030-2034 then plateaus to 2038 and declines to 2042, all discounted at 13%; plus earlier-stage ALLO-316 (solid-tumor CAR-T, renal cell carcinoma, Phase 1) assumed peak sales $600M, 22% margin, 10% POS, launch ~2036, discounted at 13%; plus net cash of $344.6M ($423.6M cash+investments per Q2 2026 update less $79.0M total debt); divided by 345.49M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Allogene is pre-revenue (TTM revenue ~$4.6M, cash runway guided into 2029) so a standard FCF DCF is meaningless; value derives almost entirely from the probability that cema-cel's pivotal ALPHA3 trial succeeds in a real, well-defined niche indication (high-risk DLBCL consolidation, a subset of the ~25-30k annual US DLBCL diagnoses), plus smaller optionality from the earlier-stage solid-tumor ALLO-316 program.