Alkermes plc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Multi-stage 10-year unlevered FCF DCF. Base FCF of $350M (normalized from TTM FCF of $221.7M, which was depressed by roughly $2.1B of cash used in the February 2026 Avadel Pharmaceuticals acquisition; FY2025 FCF was $480.3M pre-acquisition, per stockanalysis.com), growing 8%/yr in years 1-5 (in line with analyst estimates of 5-7% near-term and 7-9% mid-term revenue growth plus operating-margin expansion) then 5%/yr in years 6-10 (fading toward the 4-6% 10-year consensus range); discount rate of 9% (commercial-stage specialty pharma with multiple approved, revenue-generating products, lower risk than clinical-stage biotech); terminal growth of 3%; net debt of $916M (total debt $1.57B less cash $656.6M) subtracted; 167.76M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Alkermes has multiple approved, cash-flow-generating products (LYBALVI, ARISTADA, VUMERITY royalties, and now LUMRYZ via the Avadel acquisition), making a real DCF appropriate rather than a clinical-stage biotech's optionality-based valuation; the base FCF is normalized to exclude the one-time acquisition cash outflow that temporarily depressed trailing FCF.