Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year, two-stage unlevered FCF DCF. Base-year FCF: $177.51M (actual TTM free cash flow through June 2026, the first sustained positive FCF period after several years of cash burn). Years 1-5 FCF growth: 20%, 18%, 16%, 14%, 12%, consistent with company guidance of $5.20-5.23B 2026 revenue (+32% y/y) and analyst 10-yr forecasts of roughly 20%/yr revenue growth, plus operating leverage as Medicare Advantage membership scales. Years 6-10: 10%, 8%, 6%, 5%, 4% (deceleration as membership growth and MA industry penetration mature). Discount rate: 11% (managed-care/CMS reimbursement and regulatory risk for a still-scaling payer). Terminal growth: 3%. Net cash: $362.95M (cash $693.45M less debt $330.5M, June 2026). Shares outstanding: 207.44M. PV of FCF years 1-10 ~$2,057M + PV of terminal value ~$2,322M = enterprise value ~$4,379M; plus net cash = equity value ~$4,742M; / 207.44M shares = ~$22.85/share.

Reasoning: Alignment Healthcare has crossed into sustained positive free cash flow with a strong, well-documented near-term growth trajectory (management-guided membership/revenue growth and consensus multi-year revenue growth forecasts near 20%/yr), making a standard FCF DCF the right tool; the resulting intrinsic value is also broadly consistent with the ~$23 sell-side consensus 12-month price target, a useful external check on the model.