Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) sum-of-the-parts across 4 pipeline assets plus net cash. Reproxalap dry eye disease (DED): peak Aldeyra economics ~$85M/yr (40% US profit share per the AbbVie option deal on ~$350M assumed peak US sales, plus ex-US royalty on ~$100M peak ex-US sales), valued via a 4.0x peak-annual-economics multiplier (approximates a 10-yr commercial curve at a 13% discount rate) then discounted ~2 years to a post-resubmission launch = ~$266M, plus AbbVie deal milestones ($70M upfront net of option fees, $100M approval milestone, $150M of the $200M further regulatory/commercial milestones assumed achieved) PV'd at 13% = ~$238M; subtotal ~$504M unrisked x 30% probability of success (reflecting 3 FDA Complete Response Letters, but tempered by company-disputed efficacy data - 5 of 9 trials hit all primary endpoints - and AbbVie's continued option) = ~$151M risk-adjusted. Reproxalap allergic conjunctivitis: peak owned economics ~$62.5M/yr (25% margin on $250M peak sales), 4.0x multiplier, ~1.5yr launch lag = ~$207M unrisked x 50% PoS (Phase 3 already positive) = ~$104M. ADX-2191 (orphan PVR/retinitis pigmentosa, Phase 3 starting H1 2026): $150M peak sales x 30% margin = $45M/yr, ~$104M unrisked NPV x 35% PoS = ~$36M. ADX-248 (atopic dermatitis, Phase 2 starting H1 2026): $300M peak sales x 25% margin = $75M/yr, ~$127.5M unrisked NPV x 12% PoS = ~$15M. Sum risk-adjusted pipeline ~$306M, plus net cash of $44.95M (cash $45.09M less $0.14M debt, June 2026, from company financials). Total equity value ~$351M / 60.33M shares outstanding = ~$5.75/share.

Reasoning: Aldeyra is pre-commercial with no material product revenue, so a revenue-based FCF DCF does not fit; a probability-weighted pipeline NPV is the right framework given several distinct clinical assets at different stages and risk levels (DED post-3rd-CRL, allergic conjunctivitis post-positive-Phase-3, two earlier orphan/dermatology programs), each needing its own peak-sales and probability-of-success assumption. The AbbVie option deal (real, disclosed deal terms) grounds the DED asset specifically, and the resulting estimate lands close to the ~$6.60 sell-side consensus price target, a useful external sanity check on the model.