Albemarle Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $750M normalized mid-cycle FCF base (derived from management's own disclosed scenario analysis at a roughly $20/kg mid-case lithium price, approximately $2.5B EBITDA scenario, at a about 30% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion typical for a capital-intensive miner mid-cycle, rather than the TTM figure which reflects a current price upswing); 8% annual growth years 1-5; 5% years 6-10; 10% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; $367M net debt; 118.0M diluted shares.

Reasoning: Albemarle's actual free cash flow swings from deeply negative to strongly positive across the lithium price cycle (-$0.83B in 2023 to +$1.34B TTM), so neither the TTM nor a simple historical average is representative; anchoring to management's own mid-price scenario disclosure gives a more defensible normalized base, and a 10% discount rate reflects Albemarle's status as a price-taking commodity producer despite its structurally growing EV/battery end market.