Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year custom-schedule DCF: modeled continued near-term cash burn (-$20M, -$5M in years 1-2) as Auryxia revenue eroded following loss of U.S. exclusivity to generic competition (Teva entered March 2026), followed by a recovery to modest positive free cash flow ($8M ramping to $31M) in years 3-10 as Vafseo (vadadustat) revenue grows in the U.S. dialysis market; 13% discount rate reflecting elevated risk given a $49.6M term loan requiring refinancing; 2% terminal growth; less net debt of $43.64M; divided by 277.11 million shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Akebia's H1 2026 operating cash flow was -$16.3M and Q2 2026 revenue fell about 21% year-over-year as Auryxia lost exclusivity, so a simple model that grows current FCF would be misleading; I explicitly modeled the near-term decline and refinancing risk before Vafseo's dialysis-market ramp is projected to turn free cash flow positive.