AIRJOULE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted scenario NPV since the company is pre-commercial-revenue. Bear case (50% probability) equals net cash only of 0.56 per share (41.4M cash, no debt, over 73.35M shares). Base case (35% probability) assumes 2032 revenue of 150M at a 3x EV/sales exit multiple with diluted shares growing to about 147M discounted at 20% for six years, equals about 1.02 per share. Bull case (15% probability) assumes 2032 revenue of 400M at 4x EV/sales with about 200M diluted shares discounted at 20%, equals about 2.68 per share. Probability-weighted average is approximately 1.03 per share.

Reasoning: AirJoule completed its SPAC merger in 2024 and is now an operating pre-revenue atmospheric-water-harvesting and cooling technology company with a 50/50 GE Vernova joint venture and a Kubota partnership, but commercial revenue is not expected until 2027 and 2026 cash burn guidance is 27 to 28 million, so value today is dominated by net cash plus a heavily probability-weighted and discounted bet on commercialization succeeding at scale.