AGNT, Inc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF. $92.89M TTM FCF base; 8% annual growth yrs 1-5 (agent-count growth plus potential housing-cycle recovery), 5% yrs 6-10; 11% discount rate (higher than typical for an asset-light business to price in real dilution risk from the agent equity/ICON stock-compensation program and housing-market cyclicality); 3% terminal growth; net cash $111.16M (no debt); 167.12M shares outstanding. PV of yrs 1-10 FCF ~= $772M; PV of terminal value ~= $790M; EV ~= $1,562M; plus net cash $111M = equity value ~= $1,673M / 167.12M shares = $10.01/share.

Reasoning: eXp/AGNT is a real, asset-light, cash-generative real estate brokerage (largest cloud-based/virtual brokerage in the US) with no debt and positive TTM FCF despite a GAAP net loss (a gap largely explained by stock-based agent compensation, a core part of its model). Its steep 52-week share-price decline appears driven by housing-market weakness and NAR-settlement-related commission-compression fears rather than a collapse in cash generation, so a straightforward FCF DCF with a discount rate that embeds both cyclicality and equity-compensation dilution risk is the most appropriate method.