Abundia Global Impact Group Inc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risked 10-year FCF DCF with a success-probability haircut. Unweighted FCF path: -$18M/-$15M/-$8M/-$5M (yrs 1-4, continued pre-FID corporate burn) ramping to +$5M/+$12M/+$18M/+$20M/+$22M/+$24M (yrs 5-10) as the first waste-plastics-to-fuel plant (FID targeted Q1 2027) reaches commercial operation at an assumed ~25M gal/yr nameplate, ~$4/gal blended product+credit price, 25% EBITDA margin; 16% discount rate (novel-technology/financing/execution risk); 3% terminal growth. PV of yrs 1-10 = -$3.6M; PV of terminal value = $43.1M; unweighted EV = $39.6M; applied a 30% probability-of-success factor (pre-FID developer, no operating full-scale facility) -> risked EV $11.9M; less net debt $0.26M (cash $11.18M vs debt $11.44M) -> equity value $11.6M / 44.15M shares = $0.26/share.

Reasoning: AGIG is a real operating company (waste plastics/biomass-to-fuel technology, NYSE American-listed, 2 employees) but is pre-commercial - current $3.23M TTM revenue is from pilot/contract-R&D work, not fuel sales, and the first commercial plant hasn't even reached Final Investment Decision. A risked DCF anchored to plant economics is more defensible than extrapolating tiny current revenue, and the heavy discount reflects real technology, financing (plant will likely cost hundreds of millions) and execution risk plus a currently net-debt balance sheet.