Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF with a loss-fade trajectory: -$65M FCF in year 1 (current ~$76M net loss less non-cash items) narrowing to breakeven by year 6 as R&D on the ATI-2138/zunsemetinib-related pipeline plateaus, reaching $35M FCF by year 10 as partnered-program royalties/milestones scale; 13% discount rate for clinical-stage biotech risk; 3% terminal growth; plus $170.6M of cash and marketable securities (6/30/2026); 147.2M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Aclaris is a clinical-stage biotech with de minimis product revenue ($8.2M TTM) and heavy R&D spend, so a standard earnings multiple is meaningless; a long-horizon DCF with an explicit loss-to-profit ramp tied to its partnered pipeline reaching commercial royalties, plus the current net cash balance, is the most defensible way to estimate intrinsic value for a pre-profit biotech.