Alpha Cognition Inc. Common Stock

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year DCF modeling a path to profitability: revenue ramps from approximately $28M in FY2026 (annualizing actual H1 2026 revenue of $9.6M, which grew from $3.5M in Q1 to $6.1M in Q2) to $56M in FY2027 (roughly the revenue needed to cover the ~$50-55M annualized opex run-rate at a ~90% gross margin, matching management's stated target of reaching operating profitability in 2027) and to $182M by year 10 as ZUNVEYL penetration in the long-term-care dysphagia/Alzheimer's market matures; 18% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; 0% cash tax years 1-4 (NOL shield), 21% thereafter; plus $41.4M net cash as of June 30, 2026; 21.78M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Alpha Cognition is a recently-launched commercial-stage pharma still generating large operating losses (H1 2026 net loss of $15.3M on $9.6M revenue, with six-month operating cash burn accelerating to $18.7M from $8.2M a year earlier), so a steady-state FCF DCF is inappropriate; this instead models the company's own disclosed rapid revenue-ramp trajectory (Q2 2026 revenue up 283% YoY, two of four target national PBM contracts signed) through to its 2027 profitability target, using a high discount rate to reflect substantial execution, reimbursement, and dilution risk (the company still has an unused $75M at-the-market equity facility it says it will likely need).