Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF: $150M normalized mid-cycle FCF base (vs. depressed TTM/FY2025 actual FCF of only $65-107M, normalized off 2023 peak-cycle revenue of $1.13B and $246M net income); 8% annual FCF growth years 1-5 (cyclical recovery, management cited improving memory-market demand into 2026); 4% years 6-10; 11% discount rate (higher for end-market cyclicality); 3% terminal growth; plus $360.6M net cash ($402.2M total cash+short-term investments - $41.6M finance-lease debt, per Q2 2026 10-Q); 30.9M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Axcelis is a highly cyclical semiconductor ion-implant equipment maker currently in a demand trough (revenue fell from a $1.13B record in 2023 to $839M in 2025 before a 2026 recovery), so valuing off trailing depressed FCF would understate intrinsic earnings power; a mid-cycle normalized FCF base is more appropriate, with the large net cash balance added back separately.