AC Immune SA

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of pipeline programs plus net cash: $88.2M net cash ($93.3M cash - $5.1M debt, per stockanalysis.com balance sheet data); Program 1 ACI-35.030/JACI-35.054 tau vaccine (Takeda-partnered, Phase 2b ReTain trial, ~$2.1B unearned milestones+royalties remaining out of the up-to-$2.2B deal, 15% probability of success, 8-yr horizon, 12% discount rate) = ~$180M; Program 2 ACI-24.060 amyloid prevention vaccine (Takeda option/license, Phase 1b/2, ~$1.5B potential deal value, 10% POS, 10-yr horizon, 12% discount) = ~$90M; Program 3 ACI-7104.056 Parkinson's vaccine (wholly-owned, Phase 2 positive interim antibody-response data, ~$1.8B assumed commercial value if later partnered, 12% POS, 9-yr horizon, 12% discount) = ~$75M; other early pipeline/platform optionality = $40M; total ~$473M divided by 99.43M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: AC Immune is pre-revenue with only partnership/collaboration revenue ($21.7M TTM) and burns ~$62M/yr in operating cash flow, so a standard FCF DCF is meaningless; a probability-weighted rNPV of its Takeda-partnered and wholly-owned clinical-stage programs plus its net cash balance is the standard biotech valuation approach and reflects the binary, milestone-driven economics of its actual deal structures.