Achieve Life Sciences, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) on the cytisinicline smoking-cessation program rather than a standard FCF DCF, since there is no approved product: 10-year revenue ramp from $15M (2027 launch) to a $500M peak (2032-2033), declining to $150M by 2036 as exclusivity erodes; operating losses in 2027-2028 (heavy launch SG&A) transitioning to a 20-30% operating margin by 2029-2032; 0% cash tax through 2032 (NOL shield), 21% tax from 2033; 12% discount rate; no terminal value assumed past 2036; unadjusted PV of ~$284M multiplied by an 85% probability-of-approval factor for a risk-adjusted project NPV of ~$242M; plus $187.3M net cash/marketable securities as of 6/30/26; divided by 102.9M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Achieve has no approved or marketed product, so a standard DCF has no real cash-flow base to work from; the 85% probability-of-success input, well above a typical pre-approval biotech, reflects that the June 2026 FDA Complete Response Letter was explicitly limited to a fixable CMC/manufacturing issue (already remediated via a new manufacturer, Adare) and labeling, with the FDA stating no deficiencies in clinical efficacy or safety.