Archer Aviation Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year probability-weighted unlevered FCF DCF built on Archer's own disclosed targets: aircraft deliveries ramp from 10 units (2027) to the company's disclosed ~650 aircraft/year production target reached by 2031, priced at an assumed ~$5M average unit value, taking revenue from $50M (2027) to ~$3.77B (2036); EBIT margin ramps from -400% (2027) to 25% (2036) as production scales; 0% cash tax through 2036 given large accumulated NOLs, 21% tax applied only in the terminal year; 14% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; a 35% probability-of-success factor applied to the entire cash-flow stream and terminal value for certification/production-scaling/pricing/demand risk; $1,435.0M net cash added ($852.7M cash plus $707.9M short-term investments less $125.6M debt); 770.02M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Archer is pre-revenue with no positive free cash flow, so a standard trailing-FCF DCF is not meaningful; instead this models a path to profitability anchored to the company's own guided production-capacity target and 2026-2027 US/UAE commercial launch plans, then heavily discounts that scenario with a low probability-of-success factor and an elevated discount rate to reflect the still-substantial technology, certification and scale-up risk of a pre-commercial aerospace company.