Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF (EBITDA-based) DCF: $275M normalized Year-1 UFCF (FY2026 guided adj. EBITDA $602.5M midpoint, less ~$257M estimated D&A to get EBIT, less 24% cash tax, less $245M guided 2026 capex); FCF grows 8%/yr years 1-5 (bed-ramp margin gains plus management's guided capex step-down from $625M in 2025 to $235-255M in 2026, with further cuts planned for 2027), 4%/yr years 6-10; 9% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; $2,416.7M net debt ($2,588M total debt less $171.3M cash) subtracted from EV; 93.10M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Acadia's FY2025 net loss was driven by a one-time $996.2M non-cash goodwill impairment, not operating weakness, so an EBITDA-based unlevered FCF is a cleaner base than net income; management has explicitly pivoted from aggressive bed-expansion capex toward free-cash-flow generation, which is the central re-rating catalyst this DCF is built to capture.