Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 5-year multi-stage unlevered FCF DCF: Year-0 FCF equals TTM FCF of $145.63M (debt of only $73.85M makes the levered/unlevered distinction immaterial); revenue grown from $1.14B TTM at 14.5% per year (matching consensus 3-year revenue growth forecast) for 5 years while FCF margin expands from 12.8% to 20% (operating leverage as Daybue/Nuplazid sales scale against a largely fixed cost base), giving Year-5 FCF of $448.7M; discounted at WACC of 10% (biopharma risk premium, negligible debt weight), terminal growth 3%; PV of stage-1 FCFs ($1,102.3M) plus PV terminal value ($4,100.0M) = enterprise value $5,202.3M, plus net cash of $882.62M = equity value $6,084.9M divided by 172.31M shares.

Reasoning: Acadia is a profitable, growing specialty pharma with two approved commercial products, strong net cash of $882.6M and clear operating leverage, so a standard unlevered FCF DCF with growth/margin ramp consistent with disclosed 3-year consensus growth of 14.6% revenue fits well; the result implies roughly 29% upside to the $27.29 current price.