Arbutus Biopharma Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Sum-of-the-parts for a clinical-stage biotech with a major litigation windfall: (1) pro forma net cash of $271.0M ($92.6M cash at 6/30/26 plus $178.4M Moderna settlement payment received 7/8/26) divided by 197.85M shares = $1.37/sh; (2) risk-adjusted value of the remaining contingent Moderna settlement (Arbutus's approximately 20% share of the $1.3B contingent tranche = $260M, times 35% probability the favorable appellate ruling holds) = $91M ($0.46/sh); (3) risk-adjusted rNPV of the HBV pipeline (imdusiran/AB-729, Phase 2b, FDA Fast Track, functional-cure signal in Phase 2a, plus AB-101) using $1.2B assumed peak sales times 2x NPV/peak-sales times 15% probability of success is approximately $360M, plus $40M for AB-101 = $400M ($2.02/sh); total approximately $759M divided by 197.85M shares = $3.85/share (excludes the undisclosed/unquantified anticipated Genevant dividend as unmodeled upside).

Reasoning: Arbutus has minimal recurring FCF and its balance sheet was just transformed by a $2.25B Moderna litigation settlement, so cash-floor-plus-risked-contingent-payment-plus-risked-pipeline sum-of-the-parts captures the real, disclosed value drivers (cash, litigation proceeds, clinical pipeline) better than a conventional DCF on a pre-commercial biotech.