Abeona Therapeutics Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year normalized-revenue DCF for ZEVASKYN (approved RDEB gene therapy, priced at $3.1M/treatment): revenue base ramps from ~$50M (FY2026E) to ~$100M (FY2027), $160M (FY2028), $208M (FY2029), $239M (FY2030), then decelerating growth to a peak of ~$296M by FY2035; 85% gross margin; opex held near the current $85-120M annual run-rate; large NOL carryforwards shield cash taxes through FY2030, phasing to 21% by FY2033; FCF approximated as EBIT x (1-tax); 13% discount rate; 2% terminal growth. Explicit-period PV of FCF ~$278M, PV of terminal value ~$282M, enterprise value ~$560M; plus net cash of $146.8M (no debt) for equity value of ~$707M; divided by 57.23M basic shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Abeona is a newly commercial-stage biotech with one approved product and no stable historical FCF, so a normalized-revenue DCF anchored to disclosed early launch quarters, a realistic peak-sales ceiling from the small RDEB patient population, and NOL-driven tax timing is more appropriate than a standard mature-company DCF.