ABIVAX Société Anonyme

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of the obefazimod ulcerative-colitis (UC) franchise plus net cash: peak UC sales of $3.6B assumed (~120,000 patients at peak, ~12% penetration of an estimated 1,000,000 biologic-eligible moderate-to-severe UC patients across the US/EU5/Japan, at a blended net price of $30,000/patient/year); launch assumed 2028 (after a Q4 2026 NDA filing), ramping to peak by 2033 and held flat through a 2038 patent-related step-down; 30% free-cash-flow margin at scale; risk-adjusted for an 85% probability of regulatory/commercial success (justified by already-positive Phase 3 data); cash flows discounted at 11%, summing to ~$3.54B; plus net cash of ~$885M (H1 2026 cash/investments plus the July 2026 offering, less estimated pre-launch cash burn); total equity value of ~$4.42B divided by ~113.2M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Abivax is a clinical-stage, pre-commercial biopharma with no meaningful product revenue, so a conventional revenue/FCF-based DCF cannot be applied; a probability-weighted rNPV of its lead asset's realistic commercial cash flows plus its large net cash position is the standard, defensible method for a de-risked but not-yet-approved drug, and this base case is intentionally conservative relative to the market price, which appears to also price in Crohn's-disease optionality and acquisition speculation.