Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted (rNPV-style) 10-year explicit cash-flow DCF for lead candidate ARD-101 (Prader-Willi syndrome hyperphagia): risk-adjusted cash flows of -$20M, -$15M, -$5M in years 1-3 (pre-launch), ramping to a risk-adjusted peak of about $105M in years 8-9, reflecting an estimated 35% probability-weighted and margin-adjusted peak-sales opportunity; 12% discount rate; 1% terminal growth; -$73.2M net cash; 21.88M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: As a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech, Aardvark has no current cash flow to extrapolate, so a probability-of-success-adjusted risk-adjusted NPV model for its lead rare-disease program is the standard and most appropriate method, with existing cash added back directly since it does not depend on trial outcomes.