Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year explicit-path FCF DCF reflecting a turnaround: FCF ramps from $50M (yr1) to $300M (yr5, about 3.5% of $8.6B revenue, in line with pre-crisis historical margins) then grows about 2% per year through yr10; 10% discount rate; 2% terminal growth; $2.51B net debt; 60.40M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Advance Auto Parts is mid-turnaround with currently minimal free cash flow (TTM $23M), so rather than extrapolate from a depressed base I modeled an explicit multi-year margin-recovery path toward its historical FCF margin; the discount rate reflects execution risk in the turnaround plan and meaningful net debt.