Alcoa Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage FCF DCF on mid-cycle normalized FCF: $750M normalized annual FCF base (above depressed TTM $352M to reflect mid-aluminum-cycle margins); 3% growth years 1-5; 2% years 6-10; 10% discount rate; 2% terminal growth; $880M net debt; 263.91M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Alcoa is a cyclical commodity aluminum producer whose TTM free cash flow is depressed by heavy capex and soft prices, so a DCF using a mid-cycle normalized FCF figure better captures intrinsic earnings power; the higher discount rate and modest growth reflect commodity-price and cyclicality risk.