MBIA Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Legacy runoff/holdco framework (standard P/B or earnings DCF is not usable given negative GAAP equity of approximately -$2.23B): base-case PV of National Public Finance Guarantee's sustainable dividend capacity to the holdco (~$80M/yr off ~$1.0B statutory capital, discounted at 10% with -3%/yr runoff decline = ~$615M) plus ~30% of MBIA Insurance Corp's $317M claims-paying resources deemed excess to legacy claims (~$95M), less holdco-level debt of $879M (per 10-K: $472M medium-term notes + $233M senior notes + $174M investment-agreement liabilities); base case nets to roughly -$169M, adjusted upward to $130M to reflect embedded litigation-resolution option value not captured in the base runoff case

Reasoning: MBIA's GAAP book value is deeply negative, driven by legacy structured-finance and Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA, $565M debt service outstanding) exposure; a strict base-case runoff NPV is negative, but the stock's positive market value (~$224M) reflects real option value tied to PREPA/legacy litigation resolution and National's dividend capacity, consistent with how simplywall.st frames the investment thesis. This is a special-situation name; standard growth/DCF projections are not meaningful