D.R. Horton, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year three-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $3.0B normalized FCF base (just below FY2025's $3.28B, reflecting the land-light model while staying conservative on cyclicality); 2% annual FCF growth years 1-3 (soft housing market/elevated mortgage rates); 6% years 4-7 (cyclical recovery); 4% years 8-10 (moderating); 10.5% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; $2.98B net debt (total notes payable $5.9655B, cash $2.9854B); 279.70M diluted shares.

Reasoning: D.R. Horton's cash flow is capital-intensive and tied closely to the housing cycle, so a multi-stage growth path (soft market, then recovery, then normalization) was used instead of a flat growth rate to better capture that cyclicality.