Canopy Growth Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year staged FCF DCF in CAD, converted to USD at 1.425 USD/CAD: starting from a ~$229.6M CAD annualized revenue run-rate (Q1 FY2027 revenue of $57.4M x4), 12% revenue growth years 1-3, 8% years 4-6, 5% years 7-10; FCF margin ramping from -5% (year 1, reflecting the current ~$18.5M quarterly cash burn) to breakeven by year 2-3 and a 10% terminal FCF margin by year 10; 14% discount rate reflecting cannabis-sector and execution risk; 3% terminal growth; ~$146M CAD net cash position (Dec 2025) added back; 423.04M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Canopy Growth is still cash-flow negative but has narrowed losses materially and management expects positive adjusted EBITDA in 2H fiscal 2027, so a staged DCF that models a gradual path from current cash burn to a modest terminal FCF margin is more grounded than either a naive DCF on today's negative cash flow or a pure multiple of revenue.