COPT Defense Properties

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: AFFO-based FCFE/dividend discount model: 2026 AFFO/share ~$2.36 (assumed 85% of FY2026 adjusted-FFO guidance midpoint of $2.78, haircut for recurring capex/TI/leasing costs), growing 4.0%-4.5% annually through 2030 in line with guided same-property cash NOI growth of 4.0% (trending 7.4% YoY in Q2 2026) and defense-sector leasing tailwinds; discounted at an 8.5% cost of equity with 2.5% terminal growth; net debt of $2.66B (Net Debt/EBITDA 6.0x) and 115.3M diluted shares are reflected implicitly since AFFO/share is already a levered per-share metric

Reasoning: An AFFO-based discounted cash flow is standard for REIT valuation and fits COPT specifically because its defense/IT niche portfolio shows strong, visible same-property NOI growth and a conservative dividend payout ratio of roughly 46% of FFO, so intrinsic value should reflect total AFFO generation and reinvestment capacity rather than just the current distributed dividend