Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited

CCM ·Healthcare, Medical Care Facilities

AI Valuation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

AI Fair Value $0.25

Market Price $3.12

Overvalued By 1,148.0%

Method: Unlevered FCF DCF: FY2025A base FCF -RMB293mm; 5-yr explicit forecast -RMB220mm (Y1), -RMB120mm (Y2), RMB0 (Y3), RMB90mm (Y4), RMB160mm (Y5); discount rate 18% (China/ADR + going-concern risk premium); terminal growth 3% on Y5 FCF; less net debt RMB3.34bn (RMB3.635bn total debt less RMB298mm cash, 12/31/2025); 130.25mm ordinary shares, 30 ordinary shares per ADS (~4.34mm ADS)

Reasoning: 20-F FY2025 discloses a RMB2.1bn shareholders' deficit and going-concern doubt; net debt overwhelms the ~RMB324mm DCF-implied enterprise value so model equity value is negative, floored near zero to reflect limited-liability option value on a possible 2027-28 hospital/proton-center turnaround, well below the speculative $3.89 market price