Avis Budget Group, Inc.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Asset-heavy, through-cycle EV/EBITDA valuation on the full capital structure (corporate + vehicle-backed debt), since GAAP net income and standard FCF are distorted by a $518M EV-fleet impairment and heavy non-cash vehicle depreciation. Inputs: normalized EBITDA = 3-yr avg (2023-2025) of total EBITDA (EBIT + all D&A incl. fleet depreciation) = ($6,460M+$2,795M+$4,605M)/3 = $4,620M; applied 6.5x EV/EBITDA; EV = $30,030M; total debt = corporate debt $6,073M + vehicle program debt $19,188M = $25,261M, less cash $519M = net debt $24,742M; equity value = $5,288M; shares outstanding = 35.33M; value/share approx $149.67.

Reasoning: Avis is a highly leveraged, cyclical, capital-intensive rental fleet operator where GAAP EPS and adjusted FCF are misleading due to fleet financing/depreciation mechanics and a one-off EV impairment, so a normalized EV/EBITDA approach against the full debt stack better captures sustainable earning power; a 3-year average EBITDA smooths the rental boom and trough.