Braskem S.A.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Probability-weighted 10-yr unlevered FCF DCF (EV-to-equity bridge, per ADR). TTM revenue $13.6B; recurring EBITDA base only ~$480-600M vs historical mid-cycle ~$1.1-1.5B. Bear case (45% weight): EBITDA ramps to $1.45B over 10y, WACC 13.5%, terminal growth 2.5%, EV ~$2.1B, swamped by ~$7.1B net debt, equity near option value ~$0.15/ADR. Base case (40% weight): WACC 12%, EV ~$2.5B, still below net debt, value depends on new controlling shareholders injecting capital, ~$1.50/ADR. Bull case (15% weight): spreads normalize, EBITDA $1.6B, 6x EV/EBITDA, partial deleveraging, ~$7.50/ADR. Weighted value = 0.45(0.15)+0.40(1.50)+0.15(7.50) ~ $1.75.

Reasoning: A standard single-path DCF is not rigorous here because Braskem is in active, disclosed financial distress (a ~$9.4B debt restructuring under mediation, a subsidiary bankruptcy filing, and a recent change of control to IG4 Capital/Petrobras), so a probability-weighted scenario approach treating the equity as a quasi-option on a successful restructuring is more honest and lands close to, but modestly below, the current $1.67 market price.