American Vanguard Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year unlevered FCF DCF built around management's turnaround guidance. FY2026 guidance: revenue $530-550M, adjusted EBITDA $44-48M; 2028 targets: $600M+ revenue, double-digit EBITDA margins. Modeled FCF of -$10M (2026), $15M (2027), $30M (2028), $38M (2029), $45M (2030), then growing 3% per year through 2035 (reaching $52.1M). Discounted at 12% with 2.5% terminal growth: PV of years 1-10 FCF ~$174.1M; terminal value discounted to present ~$181.0M. Enterprise value ~$355.1M. Less net debt of $223.7M (Q2'26) gives equity value ~$131.4M / 29.50M diluted shares = $4.45/share.

Reasoning: AVD is a normal operating industrial/chemicals business, so DCF is appropriate; but given currently negative trailing FCF, high leverage (4.6x net debt/EBITDA), and an active turnaround plan, near-term projections were anchored to management's own 2026 guidance and 2028 targets rather than trailing financials, with an elevated discount rate to reflect real execution/covenant risk.