Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-yr unlevered FCF DCF: base FY25 revenue CNY9,790M (~$1,439.7M @ FX6.8); revenue growth 30.8%/19.0% (consensus yr1/yr2) then 15/12/10/8/7/6/5/4% (yrs3-10, ~11% 10yr CAGR); FCF margin ramps 19.5%->21.0% (TTM actual 19.66%); discounted at 12% WACC; terminal growth 3% (TV=$10,207M); PV explicit FCF $3,385M + PV terminal $3,286M = EV $6,672M; + net cash $651.75M = equity value $7,324M / 137.46M shares

Reasoning: Real, profitable, cash-generative Chinese hotel operator (FY25 FCF ~$280M, 19.5% margin, net cash $652M, minimal debt, EV/EBITDA 9.1x, PEG 0.71) still growing 30%+ near-term per consensus; DCF value of $53.28 vs current $32.23 price implies undervaluation, though a higher discount rate is warranted as a sensitivity check given China ADR/regulatory/FX risk