Applied Digital Corporation

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year build-out-stage unlevered FCF DCF: revenue ramps from $611M TTM to ~$3.6B by yr5 and ~$5.4B by yr10 as contracted AI/HPC data-center leases (company discloses $36B total contracted lease value) come online; EBITDA margin ramps from ~25% to 55%; heavy near-term capex ($2.0-2.9B/yr) tapering to ~$450-500M/yr maintenance capex by yr6+; 13% discount rate (elevated for leverage/execution risk); 4% terminal growth; $3.508B net debt; 287.88M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Applied Digital is mid-buildout on AI/HPC data-center campuses under long-term hyperscaler leases; current FCF is deeply negative (-$2.776B TTM) due to capex, so value depends on the campuses reaching contracted, high-margin steady-state operation; assumptions are deliberately more conservative than the AI-infrastructure enthusiasm reflected in the $27.23 current share price.