Allegion plc

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Multi-stage 10-year unlevered FCF DCF. Base FCF of $671.1M TTM (Jun-2026, per stockanalysis.com), grown at 7%/yr in years 1-5 (consensus 3-year revenue growth of 5.4% p.a. plus EPS growth of 6.8-8.5% p.a. per analyst estimates, implying modest margin expansion) then 4.5%/yr in years 6-10 as growth matures; discount rate of 8% (stable, moderate-cyclicality industrial/security-products manufacturer); terminal growth of 3%; net debt of $1.90B (total debt $2.22B less cash $320.6M) subtracted; 85.04M shares outstanding.

Reasoning: Allegion is a mature, steadily profitable industrial manufacturer with consistent double-digit-margin free cash flow generation (FCF grew from $516M in FY2023 to $671M TTM), making a standard multi-stage FCF DCF with a moderate discount rate the natural fit.