Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: 10-year two-stage unlevered FCF DCF: $2.29B TTM free cash flow base; 9% annual FCF growth for years 1-5 (continued bolt-on M&A plus mid-to-high-single-digit organic growth consistent with recent quarters); 6% for years 6-10 (deceleration as scale increases); 8% discount rate; 3% terminal growth; less net debt of $12.72B ($1.39B cash versus $14.11B total debt); divided by 256.34 million shares outstanding.

Reasoning: AJG is a large, high-quality insurance brokerage with a long record of compounding via organic growth plus disciplined bolt-on M&A; I blended its recent growth pace with a deceleration assumption and used a relatively low discount rate reflecting its low capital intensity and recurring commission/fee revenue base.