ABIVAX Société Anonyme

AI-generated fair value estimate for this company.

Method: Risk-adjusted NPV (rNPV) of the obefazimod ulcerative-colitis franchise: unrisked revenue ramp from ~$0.1B (2027) to a $3.0B peak (2032-2034) then tapering to $2.5B by 2036, with operating margin improving from -100% at launch to 35% at peak; cash flows discounted at 9%, summed to a ~$3.48B unrisked PV (including a terminal tail), then multiplied by a 65% probability-of-technical-and-regulatory-success given positive Phase 3 data already in hand; added ~$0.3B of net cash cushion from the recent $920M raise; divided by 79.82M shares outstanding

Reasoning: Abivax is a clinical-stage biotech with only trivial current revenue, so intrinsic value has to come from a probability-weighted forecast of its lead drug's commercial potential rather than current financials; a single-indication (UC), conservative peak-sales rNPV was used deliberately, which produces a materially lower value than the Street's ~$164 price target that appears to embed Crohn's-disease and broader IBD-franchise optionality beyond this base case